A few notes on minor features of the models:
- In this game the 10 of Diamonds, if captured, is worth fifty points. It's not possible to simply model the probability of capturing the 10 of Diamonds since that hinges much more on playing well than simply drawing it. So I decided to fix a slightly arbitrary probability and let the model come up with something. .33 feels right, though I suppose I could always adjust it.
- 'Standard Deviation' is automatically added by Soulver and doesn't pertain here in the slightest.
- Combinations of Jacks - pair of Jacks, trip Jacks, four Jacks - are special hands in the game with higher values. So the model excepts them into their own classes. I imagine I'll want to manually adjust the Sock of Jacks (that is, playing all four Jacks in a combination) downward; while it would indeed be quite rare to draw four Jacks oneself, one can also score here by adding on to another player's combination—that is, I could score for four Jacks if my opponent played three and I added the last one. This is so much more likely than drawing all four myself into one hand that I think it's fair to fudge the scoring ex post facto. I suppose I could even try to model that too. But I probably won't.