Via @badastronomer via @vrubaI came across a great map of the asteroid contrail (train) caught on weather satellite:
http://attivissimo.blogspot.ch/2013/02/russian-meteor-path-plotted-in-google.html
It shows that yes, the asteroid was heading SW, but to my (extremely naïve) eye it seems a bit too low an inclination to have come over the pole from my western hemisphere — certainly not straight over, but (if the 0520 GMT time is actually correct) maybe there's still a chance?